:Product: 19990204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 035 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG-DURATION C5 EVENT
OCCURRED FROM 0624 TO 0758Z. X-RAY IMAGE DATA INDICATED THAT THE
SOURCE OF THE ENHANCED X-RAYS WAS FROM BEHIND THE NORTHWEST LIMB.
REGION 8453 (S26E19) CONTINUED TO GROW SLOWLY TODAY AND IS THE ONLY
SUNSPOT REGION CURRENTLY ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. QUIET CONDITIONS
PREVAILED FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT 1400Z. AFTER
1400Z UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGAN AND CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY.  THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY HAS MOVED UP TO VALUES 50 PERCENT
ABOVE THE 300 KM/S VALUES OF EARLY TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR TOMORROW AND TREND TO QUIET
TO UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 FEB-07 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 FEB 107
PREDICTED   05 FEB-07 FEB  110/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        04 FEB 143
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 FEB  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 FEB  009/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 FEB-07 FEB  015/010-010/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 FEB-07 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                22/18/06
MINOR STORM           17/17/03
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    00/00/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                22/18/06
MINOR STORM           20/20/03
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    04/04/02