:Product: 19990205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 036 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. NO FLARES
WERE DETECTED. REGION 8453 (S26E04) WAS THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON
THE DISK. A 16-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST SEEN NEAR S23E82, DISAPPEARED
SOMETIME OVERNIGHT. A 38-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST OBSERVED NEAR S62E09,
DISAPPEARED AROUND 05/1400Z. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE REACHING 0.42
SOLAR RADII WAS OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB BEGINNING AT
05/1936Z. TODAY'S 10.7 CM RADIO FLUX READING WAS THE LOWEST SINCE
LAST OCTOBER.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS. AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE ON THE FINAL DAY WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGIONS
8439 (S23, L = 272) AND 8440 (N19, L = 265).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH BRIEF,
LOCALIZED ACTIVE PERIODS OBSERVED AT SOME HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 FEB-08 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 FEB 104
PREDICTED   06 FEB-08 FEB  105/105/115
90 DAY MEAN        05 FEB 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 FEB  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 FEB  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 FEB-08 FEB  008/011-008/011-008/011
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 FEB-08 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01