:Product: 19990206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 037 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS WITH
ISOLATED B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES, NONE OF WHICH WERE OPTICALLY
CORRELATED. THERE WERE TWO SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, INCLUDING
NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8455 (S19E33). BOTH REGIONS WERE SMALL,
STRUCTURALLY SIMPLE, AND STABLE. A 23-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST SEEN
CENTERED NEAR S54W34, DISAPPEARED DURING 06/1219 - 1540Z. TODAY'S
10.7 CM RADIO FLUX READING WAS THE LOWEST SINCE LAST JULY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT VERY LOW LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LEVELS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE REMAINING DAYS
WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGIONS 8439 (S23, L = 272) AND 8440
(N19, L = 265).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ACTIVE LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
DURING 06/0500 - 0600Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS. ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING 09 FEBRUARY IN RESPONSE
TO RECENT FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 FEB-09 FEB
CLASS M    05/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 FEB 099
PREDICTED   07 FEB-09 FEB  105/115/125
90 DAY MEAN        06 FEB 141
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 FEB  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 FEB  012/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 FEB-09 FEB  008/011-008/011-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 FEB-09 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05