:Product: 19990207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 038 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT VERY LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED
B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED INCLUDING A SMALL OPTICAL FLARE FROM A
SPOTLESS PLAGE REGION NEAR N21E15. ALL SPOT GROUPS WERE SMALL,
QUIET, AND STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8456 (N23E65).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  A GRADUAL INCREASE TO LOW LEVELS IS
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGIONS
8439 (S23, L = 272) AND 8440 (N19, L = 265).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ACTIVE LEVELS WERE DETECTED AT SOME MIDDLE AND
HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS DURING 07/0500 - 0600Z, 07/1000 - 1200Z, AND
07/1400 - 1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FIRST
DAY. AN INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS IS EXPECTED DURING 09
FEBRUARY IN RESPONSE TO RECENT FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCES. ACTIVE
LEVELS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON 10 FEBRUARY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
THE GT 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE MAY REACH
HIGH LEVELS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 FEB-10 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 FEB 110
PREDICTED   08 FEB-10 FEB  115/120/125
90 DAY MEAN        07 FEB 141
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB  012/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB  010/012-015/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 FEB-10 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05