:Product: 19990208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 039 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED
C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED. NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 8457 (N18E73) AND
8458 (S23E76) MARKED THE RESPECTIVE RETURNS OF OLD 8440 AND 8439.
NEW REGION 8459 (S28E48) WAS ALSO ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD DECLINED TO MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS AT ALL
LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS
ALTITUDE CONTINUED AN INCREASING TREND, BUT REMAINED AT MODERATE
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 09 - 10
FEBRUARY, THEN DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON 11 FEBRUARY.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 FEB-11 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 FEB 125
PREDICTED   09 FEB-11 FEB  135/145/150
90 DAY MEAN        08 FEB 140
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 FEB  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 FEB  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 FEB-11 FEB  015/011-015/011-012/011
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 FEB-11 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01