:Product: 19990209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 040 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THREE C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS
OCCURRED, THE LARGEST, A C-2/SF AT 09/0508Z FROM REGION 8453
(S25W48). A TYPE II SWEEP ALSO OCCURRED WITH THIS FLARE. THE
REMAINING TWO C-1 X-RAY BURSTS WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. LIMB
PROXIMITY STILL PROHIBITS ACCURATE ANALYSIS OF REGION 8458 (S22E65),
A LARGE SPOT GROUP ROTATING AROUND THE SE LIMB; HOWEVER, NO
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED YET DURING ITS LIMB CROSSING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8456 AND 8458.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  ACTIVITY WILL DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 FEB-12 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/20
CLASS X    01/01/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 FEB 129
PREDICTED   10 FEB-12 FEB  135/140/150
90 DAY MEAN        09 FEB 140
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 FEB  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 FEB-12 FEB  012/008-010/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 FEB-12 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01