:Product: 19990210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 041 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8457 (N17E48) AND 8458
(S18E55) PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 8458
APPEARS NOW AS A MODERATELY LARGE D-TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING AS MUCH
AS 600 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. MAGNETIC ANALYSIS INDICATE
ONLY MINOR COMPLEXITY  IN THIS REGION FOR NOW. NEW REGION 8460
(S17E70) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS AN H-TYPE SPOT NE OF REGION 8458.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8457 AND 8458 ARE THE LIKELY SOURCE REGIONS FOR
CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8458 HOLDS SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH A SINGLE UNSETTLED PERIOD
OBSERVED BETWEEN 10/1500-1800Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEO-SYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 FEB-13 FEB
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 FEB 152
PREDICTED   11 FEB-13 FEB  155/160/165
90 DAY MEAN        10 FEB 140
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 FEB  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 FEB  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 FEB-13 FEB  010/010-008/008-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 FEB-13 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01