:Product: 19990211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 042 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A LONG DURATION C3.7 X-RAY EVENT AT 10/2346Z. SPACE BASED
IMAGERY SUGGEST REGION 8457 (N16E36) AS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS
EVENT. REGION 8356 (N23E16) ALSO PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES AS
IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND NOW EXHIBITS A MODERATELY COMPLEX
BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE GROWTH OCCURRED IN
REGION 8458 (S22E42) WHERE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION DEVELOPED LATE
IN THE PERIOD. OTHER DYNAMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN THIS REGION INDICATE
INCREASED FLARE POTENTIAL AS THE REGION NOW MEASURES 700 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. EXPECT CONTINUED C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY FROM REGIONS
8456 AND 8457 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS. REGION 8458 IS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING AS A LIKELY SOURCE FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL A WEAK
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT 11/0900Z; UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SINCE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT PERIOD, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED THEREAFTER.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 FEB 164
PREDICTED   12 FEB-14 FEB  170/175/175
90 DAY MEAN        11 FEB 141
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 FEB  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB  017/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB  012/012-008/012-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                70/15/15
MINOR STORM           20/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                80/20/20
MINOR STORM           40/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/01