:Product: 19990212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 043 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 FEB 1999
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IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE.  AN M1/1N FLARE ERUPTED
IN REGION 8457 (N15E23) AT 12/0325Z. ASSOCIATED TYPE II/IV SWEEPS
ALSO OCCURRED WITH MODERATE CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. A C5/SF ALSO
OCCURRED IN THIS REGION AT 12/1527Z WHILE SLOW GROWTH WAS NOTED IN
WHITE LIGHT BOTH IN AREA COVERAGE AND SPOT COUNT. FREQUENT LOW
C-CLASS FLARES ALSO OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8456 (N23E04) AND 8458
(S23E29). THE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN REGION 8458 HAS FADED BUT THE
REGION REMAINS COMPLEX WITH GOOD FLARE POTENTIAL. REGION 8456
APPEARED TO SIMPLIFY WITH SLIGHT DECAY OBSERVED IN WHITE LIGHT. FOUR
NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: REGIONS 8461 (S32E27), 8462
(N20E34), 8463 (S16E61), AND 8464 (N19E64). THE ADDITION OF THESE
FOUR NEW REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK RESULT IN A TOTAL OF EIGHT
SPOTTED REGIONS EAST OF CENTRAL MERIDIAN. THE OFFICIAL 10.7CM FLUX
FOR 12 FEB WAS 188 FLUX UNITS, MAKING IT THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
10.7CM FLUX SO FAR THIS CYCLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8457 AND 8458 HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8456, THOUGH DECAYING SOMEWHAT, HAS POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH AN ISOLATED
MINOR STORMING PERIOD DURING 12/06-09Z. THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL MASS EJECTION BUT A HIGH SPEED STREAM
ASSOCIATED A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IS LIKELY CAUSING THE
DISTURBED CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE
OF AN ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIOD AT HIGH LATITUDES. EXPECT
MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 FEB-15 FEB
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     10/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 FEB 188
PREDICTED   13 FEB-15 FEB  190/190/190
90 DAY MEAN        12 FEB 141
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 FEB  016/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 FEB  025/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 FEB-15 FEB  012/015-008/012-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 FEB-15 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/15/15
MINOR STORM           20/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                70/20/20
MINOR STORM           25/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01