:Product: 19990213RSGA.txt :Issued: 1999 Feb 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 044 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 FEB 1999 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED IN REGION 8462 (N21E21), THE LARGEST BEING A C9/SN AT 13/1611UT. THIS REGION IS A FAIRLY SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP TO THE NORTHEAST OF LARGE GROUP 8457 (N15E10). REGION 8457 CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE LIGHT AREA BUT DID NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLARES. REGION 8458 (S22E16), THE OTHER LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK, HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED IN REGION 8456 (N23W09). NEW REGION 8465 (S33W60) EMERGED ON THE DISK. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8456, 8457, 8458, AND 8462. REGIONS 8457 AND 8462 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE SINCE 13/1200UT. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 FEB-16 FEB CLASS M 50/50/50 CLASS X 05/05/05 PROTON 05/05/05 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 13 FEB 198 PREDICTED 14 FEB-16 FEB 200/205/210 90 DAY MEAN 13 FEB 142 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 FEB 015/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 FEB 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 FEB-16 FEB 005/008-005/008-005/008 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 FEB-16 FEB A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/15/15 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 15/15/15 MINOR STORM 10/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01