:Product: 19990214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 045 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A LONG-DURATION
M1/SF FLARE PEAKING AT 14/1045UT IN REGION 8457 (N15W03).  THIS
REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. C-CLASS ACTIVITY ALSO
OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8456 (N23W22), 8458 (S22E03), AND 8462 (N20E07).
RAPID EMERGENCE OF NEW FLUX IS OCCURRING IN REGION 8459 (S30W30), AN
AREA WHICH HAD BEEN SPOTLESS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE MOST PROBABLE FLARE PRODUCERS ARE REGIONS 8456,
8457, 8458, AND 8462. REGION 8459 MAY ALSO BEGIN TO FLARE IF
EMERGENCE CONTINUES. REGIONS 8457 AND 8462 HAVE THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 FEB 205
PREDICTED   15 FEB-17 FEB  210/215/215
90 DAY MEAN        14 FEB 143
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01