:Product: 19990215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 046 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. C-CLASS ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN
REGIONS 8456 (N22W37), 8457 (N15W18), 8458 (S22W09), 8462 (N19W06),
AND 8464 (N20E28). MOST REGIONS ARE EITHER SHOWING SIGNS OF
DECAY/SIMPLIFICATION OR HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. THE MOST COMPLEX AREAS
APPEAR TO BE REGIONS 8457, 8458, AND 8462.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS
INCLUDING 8456, 8457, 8458, 8459, 8462, AND 8464. REGIONS 8457,
8458, AND 8462 ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.
REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND INFORMATION FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT SUGGESTS
THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 FEB-18 FEB
CLASS M    50/40/30
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 FEB 190
PREDICTED   16 FEB-18 FEB  190/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        15 FEB 144
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 FEB  005/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 FEB  012/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 FEB-18 FEB  010/010-010/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 FEB-18 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01