:Product: 19990216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 047 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO M-CLASS FLARES IN
REGIONS 8462 (N18W20) AND 8458 (S22W23). THE FLARE IN 8458 WAS THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT, BEING A LONG-DURATION M3/SF AT 16/0312UT WHICH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II/IV SWEEPS AND A 560 SFU TENFLARE. THESE TWO
REGIONS ALSO PRODUCED A NUMBER OF C-CLASS SUBFLARES.  NEW REGIONS
8466 (S23E59) AND 8467 (N16E65) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8457, 8458,
8462, AND 8464. REGIONS 8457, 8458, AND 8462 REMAIN THE MOST
PROBABLE AREAS FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA SUGGESTS
THAT WE ARE NO LONGER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM
MENTIONED YESTERDAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 FEB-19 FEB
CLASS M    50/40/30
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 FEB 192
PREDICTED   17 FEB-19 FEB  190/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        16 FEB 145
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 FEB  013/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB  005/006-005/008-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 FEB-19 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01