:Product: 19990219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 050 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. JUST ISOLATED, SMALL, C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED, AS THE GENERAL CHARACTER OF THE REGIONS ON THE DISK
WAS THAT OF DECAY. EIGHT SPOTTED REGIONS ARE VISIBLE, THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE BEING 8458 (S23W61). THE LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THE PAST 24
HOURS. MAJOR STORMING WHICH BEGAN EARLY YESTERDAY HAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDED. THE RADIAL SOLAR WIND SPEED IS STILL IN EXCESS OF 500
KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ROSE TO HIGH
LEVELS MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT
REACHES QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON DAY 2. THE LAST DAY OF THE
INTERVAL MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AGAIN AS A HIGH SPEED
STREAM FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE IS DUE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 FEB-22 FEB
CLASS M    30/30/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 FEB 164
PREDICTED   20 FEB-22 FEB  160/155/150
90 DAY MEAN        19 FEB 147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB  041/054
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB  035/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB  015/020-005/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 FEB-22 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/30
MINOR STORM           10/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/25/40
MINOR STORM           15/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05