:Product: 19990220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 051 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8458 (S22W74) PRODUCED A
C8/SF WITH TYPES II AND IV SWEEP AT 0406Z. THIS EVENT IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWED ANOTHER C8 AT 0310Z THAT WAS NOT OBSERVED FROM THE GROUND.
OF THE OTHER C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRING, THE C4/SF AT 1519Z, ALSO FROM
8458, HAD A TYPE II SWEEP. NEW REGION 8468 (N35W66) EMERGED AT A
HIGH LATITUDE. THE OTHER SIX SPOT GROUPS WERE STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT LOW LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A
HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM A  WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE MAY AFFECT
THE NEAR-EARTH ENVIRONS IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 FEB-23 FEB
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 FEB 157
PREDICTED   21 FEB-23 FEB  150/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        20 FEB 147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 FEB  024/038
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 FEB  003/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 FEB-23 FEB  005/010-005/017-015/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 FEB-23 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01