:Product: 19990221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 052 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS DUE TO A SINGLE
M-CLASS EVENT. A LONG DURATION (1 HOUR) M1/SF AT 21/1345UT FROM
REGION 8462 (N20W79). THE ONLY OTHER EVENT OF NOTICE WAS AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C8 X-RAY FLARE AT 21/0950UT. REGION 8462 WAS
THE MOST ACTIVE REGION. RGN 8464 (N18W53) PRODUCED A SINGLE
SUBFLARE. ALL THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE QUIET AND STABLE. NEW
REGION 8469 (N15W18) EMERGED AS A 4 SPOT CSO BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF REGION 8462 PRODUCING ANOTHER ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED THRESHOLD LEVELS AT 21/1700 AND
REMAINED AT THAT LEVEL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. A
HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM A WELL POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE MAY AFFECT THE
NEAR EARTH ENVIRONS IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE 3RD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 FEB-24 FEB
CLASS M    30/25/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 FEB 147
PREDICTED   22 FEB-24 FEB  145/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        21 FEB 147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 FEB  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 FEB  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 FEB-24 FEB  005/012-015/017-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 FEB-24 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/30
MINOR STORM           05/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01