:Product: 19990222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 053 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C3 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT
22/1301UT AND A LONG DURATION (1.5 HOURS) C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT
22/2210UT. BOTH WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE
MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE. A NEW REGION, 8470 (S23E72), EMERGED AS A 5
SPOT BXO BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A FEW ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE ABOVE THRESHOLD
LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM A WELL POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE MAY AFFECT THE
NEAR EARTH ENVIRONS DURING THAT TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
QUIET TO UNSETTLED AFTER THAT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 FEB 130
PREDICTED   23 FEB-25 FEB  125/120/118
90 DAY MEAN        22 FEB 146
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB  007/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB  015/017-010/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01