:Product: 19990223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 054 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. CURRENTLY THERE ARE ONLY
THREE SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK. A NEW REGION, 8471 (N28E55),
EMERGED AS A 4 SPOT DAO BETA GROUP. THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY
QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS AT AROUND
23/1000UT AND REMAINED ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 FEB-26 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 FEB 127
PREDICTED   24 FEB-26 FEB  120/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        23 FEB 147
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 FEB  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 FEB  015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 FEB-26 FEB  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 FEB-26 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01