:Product: 19990224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 055 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8467 (N16W36)
PRODUCED TWO OPTICAL SUBFLARES AT 24/1658 AND 1726UT. OTHER THAN
THAT, THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE
PERIOD. A NEW REGION, 8472 (N28E63), EMERGED AS A SINGLE SPOT AXX
ALPHA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE LEVELS UNTIL
ABOUT 24/1800UT. AT THAT TIME THEY SLOWLY DECLINED TO BACKGROUND
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 FEB-27 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 FEB 120
PREDICTED   25 FEB-27 FEB  120/120/115
90 DAY MEAN        24 FEB 146
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 FEB-27 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01