:Product: 19990225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 056 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 8470 (S23E31) PRODUCED
A C1/SF EVENT AT 25/1800Z.  A COUPLE OTHER MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED EARLIER DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO OPTICAL
CORRELATION.  SUBFLARING WAS OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 8471 (N30E25) AND
8472 (N30E48).  REGIONS 8471 AND 8472 SHOWED SLIGHT GROWTH.  NO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE ISOLATED
PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS FROM 25/0300 TO 0600Z.  THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ROSE SLOWLY AND ENTERED
MODERATE LEVELS AROUND 25/1400Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 FEB-28 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 FEB 120
PREDICTED   26 FEB-28 FEB  120/118/115
90 DAY MEAN        25 FEB 146
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 FEB  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 FEB  009/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 FEB-28 FEB  008/008-008/008-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 FEB-28 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01