:Product: 19990227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 058 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 8471 (N29E01) PRODUCED
TWO C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AT 27/0857 AND 1208Z WITH ASSOCIATED
OPTICAL SUBFLARES.  REGION 8471 SHOWED SLIGHT GROWTH DURING THE
PERIOD.  NEW REGIONS 8474 AT S24W38, AND 8475 AT N32E42 WERE
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 FEB-02 MAR
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 FEB 115
PREDICTED   28 FEB-02 MAR  112/110/110
90 DAY MEAN        27 FEB 145
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 FEB  001/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 FEB  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 FEB-02 MAR  008/008-010/010-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 FEB-02 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01