:Product: 19990228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 059 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  REGION 8471 (N29W12) PRODUCED
A M6/2B EVENT AT 28/1639Z.  THIS EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 310 SFU
RADIO BURST AT 2695MHZ.  OTHERWISE, ONLY TWO MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 8471 CONTINUED TO SHOW
GROWTH AND HAS INCREASED IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY TO A BETA GAMMA
CONFIGURATION. NEW REGIONS 8476 AT N20E19, AND 8477 AT S25E77 WERE
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH REGION 8471 AS THE PRIMARY FLARE PRODUCER.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS
DETECTED AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.  A HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM A WELL
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE MAY AFFECT
THE NEAR-EARTH ENVIRONS DURING THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 FEB 123
PREDICTED   01 MAR-03 MAR  125/128/130
90 DAY MEAN        28 FEB 144
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR  010/010-010/012-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01