:Product: 19990301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 060 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8471
(N28W26) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ON 28 FEB,
PRIOR TO THE M6/2B, THIS REGION DEVELOPED A DELTA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION OF MODERATE STRENGTH. IN THE INTERIM, THIS DELTA
FADED AND OVERALL THE REGION DECAYED SLIGHTLY IN PENUMBRAL COVERAGE.
THE MAIN NEUTRAL LINE IN THIS REGION WAS ALMOST LINEAR SUGGESTING
MAGNETIC SHEAR AT THAT LOCATION, BUT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA WERE
NOT AVAILABLE TO CONFIRM THIS SUPPOSITION. REGION 8475 (N32E16)
EXHIBITED GROWTH AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. A DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION MAY BE FORMING IN THIS REGION. TWO SMALL AREAS OF
PLAGE AND SPOTS EMERGED NEAR S15W07. THERE WERE NUMBERED AS NEW
REGION 8478. THIS AREA MAY BE SPLIT INTO TWO SEPARATE REGIONS IN THE
NEAR FUTURE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LOW TO
MODERATE. REGION 8471 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT BUT FLARE FREQUENCY SHOULD DECREASE AS DECAY
CONTINUES. REGION 8475 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS
EVENTS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS SHOULD GROWTH AND INCREASING
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY CONTINUE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
THE MOST DISTURBED PERIODS WERE 01/0000-0600Z AND 01/1200-1800Z.
SOLAR WIND DATA SHOWED A LOW SPEED, HIGH DENSITY FLOW WITH NORTHWARD
BZ DURING THE DISTURBANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
RELATED TO A FILAMENT DISRUPTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ON 24-25
FEB. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS INCREASING
AND DENSITY WAS DECREASING.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. A SMALL CORONAL
HOLE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EARTH'S FIELD ON 02-03 MAR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 MAR-04 MAR
CLASS M    50/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 MAR 120
PREDICTED   02 MAR-04 MAR  120/120/118
90 DAY MEAN        01 MAR 144
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 FEB  010/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAR  024/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAR-04 MAR  015/015-012/012-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 MAR-04 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05