:Product: 19990304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 063 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8475 (N32W22)
PRODUCED A C3/1F AT 03/2343Z AND A C3/SF AT 04/0514Z. REGION 8475
EXHIBITED SLIGHT DECAY. REGION 8476 (N18W34) GREW SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ITS RATE OF EMERGENCE SLOWED. REGION 8471
(N28W63) WAS GENERALLY STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8471, 8475, AND 8476 ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS. THEY ALSO COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING.
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES ARE DUE TO RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY ELEVATE AT THAT TIME. AN
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE FLARE POTENTIAL OF THESE LONGITUDES MUST
AWAIT THEIR APPEARANCE AT THE LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. AFTER
SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES DECREASED ON 03 MAR TO LESS THAN 400 KM/S,
THEY BEGAN TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY ON 04 MAR TO OVER 550 KM/S.
DENSITY REMAINED LOW INDICATING A RESURGENCE OF A CORONAL HOLE
STREAM IMPACTING THE EARTH. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 04/1920Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
AT PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED UPON THE CONTINUATION OF A CORONAL HOLE STREAM IMPACTING
THE EARTH FROM AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE SUN. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD
REACH HIGH LEVELS EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 MAR-07 MAR
CLASS M    25/25/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 MAR 144
PREDICTED   05 MAR-07 MAR  150/158/165
90 DAY MEAN        04 MAR 143
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR  011/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR  018/018-015/015-009/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 MAR-07 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05