:Product: 19990305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 064 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE SEVERAL MINOR
C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THAT WERE NOT CORRELATED OPTICALLY DURING THE
PERIOD. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS FROM REGION 8477 (S26E15) WHICH
PRODUCED A C3/1N EVENT AT 05/1916Z. THREE FILAMENTS DISAPPEARED
BETWEEN 04/2058Z-05/1153Z IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LARGEST BEING 38
DEGREES, LAST SEEN CENTERED NEAR S63E69. REGION 8476 (N18W49) AND
REGION 8477 HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8471, 8475, 8476 AND 8477 ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BASED UPON THE CONTINUATION OF AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUN. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS AROUND
05/0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE LEVELS
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE ELONGATED CORONAL
HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE THIRD DAY OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 MAR-08 MAR
CLASS M    25/25/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 MAR 128
PREDICTED   06 MAR-08 MAR  130/132/138
90 DAY MEAN        05 MAR 143
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAR  019/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAR  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAR-08 MAR  015/015-010/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 MAR-08 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05