:Product: 19990306RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 065 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT
06/1410Z WHICH WAS OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8482 (S26E64) AND REGION 8483 (S18W05).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE
TO MINOR STOM CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS HAVE BEEN AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PERIODS
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
THE ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 MAR-09 MAR
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 MAR 114
PREDICTED   07 MAR-09 MAR  116/118/125
90 DAY MEAN        06 MAR 143
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAR  017/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAR-09 MAR  008/009-008/009-008/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 MAR-09 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05