:Product: 19990307RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 066 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG DURATION C2/SF FROM
REGION 8475 (N30W64) OCCURRED AT 06/2323Z. REGION 8477 (S25W10)
PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 07/0408Z. AN 11 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED AT
N30W35 BETWEEN 06/0954-2307Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH
MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME SECTORS.
THE MOST PROBABLE CAUSE IS THE ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SUN.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NEAR EARTH ENVIRONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 MAR-10 MAR
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 MAR 110
PREDICTED   08 MAR-10 MAR  112/114/116
90 DAY MEAN        07 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 MAR  007/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 MAR  025/024
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 MAR-10 MAR  015/016-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 MAR-10 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/05