:Product: 19990308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 067 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THERE WERE TWO X-RAY
EVENTS THIS PERIOD, ONE WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C7 AT 08/0031Z
AND THE OTHER WAS A M2/SF AT 08/0637Z FROM REGION 8484 (S22E76).
THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8484, REGION 8485
(N22E66), AND REGION 8486 (S25W12).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT
HIGH LATITUDES WERE OBSERVED AT 07/2100Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 MAR-11 MAR
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 MAR 127
PREDICTED   09 MAR-11 MAR  132/138/145
90 DAY MEAN        08 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAR  014/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAR  015/016
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAR-11 MAR  015/012-010/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 MAR-11 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05