:Product: 19990309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 068 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8484 PRODUCED TWO
C-CLASS SUBFLARES: THE FIRST WAS A C2/1F AT 1830Z AND THE SECOND WAS
A C1/SF AT 2010Z. THE GROUP IS AN ACTIVE, BUT RELATIVELY SMALL
D-TYPE SUNSPOT REGION. REGION 8485 (N22E53) SHOWED FREQUENT
BRIGHTENINGS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT ONLY PRODUCED ONE
SUB-FAINT FLARE. THE OTHER SUNSPOT REGIONS WERE STABLE AND QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER,  FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM 8484 OR 8477 (S28W33).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO STORM LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITIALLY QUIET FIELD BECAME ACTIVE AROUND
09/0000UT, AND INTENSIFIED TO MINOR STORM (WITH SOME HIGH LATITUDE
MAJOR STORM PERIODS) BETWEEN 0600-1330 UT. CONDITIONS SUBSIDED
GRADUALLY, WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY 09/2100Z. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 MAR-12 MAR
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 MAR 127
PREDICTED   10 MAR-12 MAR  135/145/150
90 DAY MEAN        09 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAR  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAR  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAR-12 MAR  010/012-010/012-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 MAR-12 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01