:Product: 19990311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 070 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8483 (S18W61) SHOWED
GROWTH AND FREQUENT SMALL FLARE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING A C8/SF AT
0009Z. NEW REGION 8487 (N17E63) WAS ALSO ACTIVE TODAY AND PRODUCED A
C6/SF AT 2034Z. REGION 8485 (N22E27) GREW SLOWLY AND IS CURRENTLY
THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK, BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER A
COUPLE SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT, HOWEVER,
FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8485, 8484 OR 8483.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. AN INITIALLY QUIET FIELD
BECAME MOSTLY UNSETTLED AFTER 11/0000Z AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIOD AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN 1200-1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THERE
IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN INCREASE TO ACTIVE LEVELS BEGINNING LATE ON
THE 13TH OR PERHAPS ON THE 14TH AS A RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S
FILAMENT ERUPTION. NOTE ALSO THAT THERE IS ALSO AN ENHANCED,
PROBABILITY FOR STORM LEVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 MAR 137
PREDICTED   12 MAR-14 MAR  140/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        11 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR  029/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR  013/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR  010/012-015/015-020/023
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/15/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/15
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/20/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/15/20