:Product: 19990312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 071 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8487 (N17E51) WAS THE
MOST ACTIVE REGION TODAY, PRODUCING A STEADY SEQUENCE OF FLARE
ACTIVITY INCLUDING AT LEAST 5 C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST OF THESE
WAS A C9/1B AT 1726Z. THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE SMALL, BUT IS
GROWING AND HAS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8485 (N23E13) IS
THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY. THE
REGION SHOWS OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATIONS AND CONTRIBUTED 4 C-CLASS
EVENTS, ALL OF WHICH WERE AT C1 LEVEL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM EITHER OF 8485 OR 8487.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. QUIET LEVELS
PREVAILED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT THE PERIOD FROM 0600-1200 WAS
SOMEWHAT DISTURBED, WITH ACTIVITY ATTAINING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AN
INCREASE TO ACTIVE IS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW OR EARLY ON THE 2ND DAY
IN RESPONSE TO ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILAMENT ERUPTION OF 10
MARCH. MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ON THE 2ND DAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR STORM CONDITIONS. MOSTLY
UNSETTLED LEVELS SHOULD RESUME ON THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAR 140
PREDICTED   13 MAR-15 MAR  140/145/145
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAR  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAR-15 MAR  015/012-020/020-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/15/05