:Product: 19990315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 074 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8487 (N16E11) SHOWED A SMALL INCREASE IN AREA AND MAGNETIC FIELD
INTENSITY AND PRODUCED AN M1/1N PARALLEL-RIBBON FLARE AT 15/0336Z
ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. SLOW GROWTH IN PENUMBRAL
COVERAGE AND MAGNETIC FIELD INTENSITY ALSO OCCURRED WITHIN REGION
8485 (N23W25). IT REMAINED A LARGE F-TYPE SPOT GROUP WITH MIXED
POLARITIES AND PRODUCED ISOLATED B- AND C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE
REMAINING SPOT GROUPS WERE QUIET AND STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8485 AND 8487 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT ALL
LATITUDES AND SHOWED A DECREASING TREND AFTER 15/1600Z. RECENT
ACTIVE PERIODS APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE
WINDSTREAM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEN DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 MAR-18 MAR
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 MAR 150
PREDICTED   16 MAR-18 MAR  150/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        15 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAR  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR  015/012-012/010-007/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 MAR-18 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/35/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01