:Product: 19990317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 076 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8485 (N24W52) CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN M6/2N AT
16/2144Z. TWO OTHER M-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED - AN M3/1F AT
17/0956Z, AND AN M1/SN AT 17/1449Z. THIS ACTIVE F-TYPE GROUP
EXHIBITED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. ERUPTIVE PROMINENCES WERE OBSERVED IN
PROGRESS ON THE NW LIMB AT 17/0119Z AND NE LIMB AT 17/0717Z. CORONAL
MASS EJECTIONS OCCURRED WITH BOTH ERUPTIONS. NEW REGION 8490
(S20E66) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8485 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARES
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH AN ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIOD BETWEEN 17/1500 - 17/1800Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
CLASS M    50/45/25
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 MAR 155
PREDICTED   18 MAR-20 MAR  150/145/135
90 DAY MEAN        17 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR  012/012-012/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01