:Product: 19990318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 077 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8485 (N24W64)
PRODUCED AN M3 X-RAY FLARE WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 18/0831Z. THIS
REGION WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A C9 X-RAY FLARE AT 17/2156Z AND
PRODUCED SEVERAL OTHER C-CLASS EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION
8485 RETAINS MODERATE COMPLEXITY AND SIZE AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
LIMB. REGION 8488 (S26W17) GREW IN WHITE LIGHT AREA, DEVELOPING A
D-TYPE GROUP WITH SOME COMPLEXITY, BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. ANOTHER STRONG CORONAL MASS EJECTION OCCURRED
OFF THE NE LIMB, BUT NO MATERIAL APPEARED EARTHBOUND. NEW REGION
8491 (N19W09) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE
WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 8485.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS LATE IN THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 MAR-21 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/25
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 MAR 148
PREDICTED   19 MAR-21 MAR  145/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        18 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAR  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAR  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAR-21 MAR  012/010-005/008-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 MAR-21 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01