:Product: 19990319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 078 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. REGION 8485 (N22W78)
HAS QUIETED DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. LIMB
PROXIMITY INHIBITS A THOROUGH ANALYSIS, BUT IT APPEARS NOW AS A
SIMPLE BETA GROUP IN DECAY. A PROMINENCE ERUPTED FROM THE SE LIMB
AROUND 19/1620Z. SPACE-BASED IMAGERY INDICATE A CORONAL MASS
EJECTION OCCURRED WITH THE ERUPTION, BUT MATERIAL DOES NOT APPEAR
EARTHBOUND. FIVE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY - REGIONS 8492
(S27W46), 8493 (N19W22), 8494 (S22E15), 8495 (S21E61), AND 8496
(S11W03). REGION 8493 APPEARS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST ACTIVITY POTENTIAL
OF THESE NEW REGIONS AS IT QUICKLY DEVELOPED INTO A C CLASS GROUP
WITH OVER 20 SPOTS VISIBLE IN WHITE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
WAS NOTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FROM REGION 8485 AS IT
ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS DIMINISHING AS
THE REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 MAR-22 MAR
CLASS M    25/10/10
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 MAR 139
PREDICTED   20 MAR-22 MAR  135/130/135
90 DAY MEAN        19 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAR  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAR  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAR-22 MAR  008/008-008/007-008/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 MAR-22 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01