:Product: 19990320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 079 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C4/SF OCCURRED IN REGION 8493
(N20W36) AT 19/2330Z. ACTIVITY WAS AT VERY LOW LEVELS SINCE THEN
WITH MINOR PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND SURGES OCCURRING IN REGION 8493
AND 8496 (S09W18). REMAINING REGIONS HAVE SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGIONS 8493 AND 8496 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 MAR-23 MAR
CLASS M    15/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 MAR 133
PREDICTED   21 MAR-23 MAR  130/125/125
90 DAY MEAN        20 MAR 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 MAR  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 MAR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 MAR-23 MAR  008/007-010/005-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 MAR-23 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01