:Product: 19990325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 084 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE FOUR SPOTTED REGIONS
WERE STABLE, AND VERY LITTLE OF SIGNIFICANCE OCCURRED. THERE WAS
SOME MINOR LIMB ACTIVITY NEAR NW05 MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 1800Z, WHEN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OCCURRED. SOLAR WIND DATA SUGGEST THIS MODEST
ACTIVITY MAY BE A GLANCING  BLOW FROM A TRANSIENT SEEN ON MARCH 21.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 MAR-28 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 MAR 107
PREDICTED   26 MAR-28 MAR  105/105/110
90 DAY MEAN        25 MAR 141
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 MAR  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 MAR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 MAR-28 MAR  015/012-015/012-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 MAR-28 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01