:Product: 19990329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 088 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 MAR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8502 (S23W17) WAS
THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING AN ISOLATED B3/SF AT 29/1705UT. A
NEW SPOT APPEARED ON THE LIMB JUST WEST OF REGION 8502. DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE LIMB THE OBSERVATORIES ARE UNABLE TO DETERMINE IF
THERE ARE TWO BACK-TO-BACK REGIONS OR A SINGLE LARGE SPOT GROUP AT
THIS TIME. ONE NEW SPOT GROUP WAS NUMBERED, REGION 8503 (S23W15).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH A MINOR STORM PERIOD
OCCURRING AT 29/1500-1800UT. THIS WAS PROBABLY DUE TO A CORONAL HOLE
HIGH SPEED STREAM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A HIGH SPEED STREAM COULD
CONTINUE TO ELEVATE ACTIVITY MARCH 30-31.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 MAR-01 APR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 MAR 104
PREDICTED   30 MAR-01 APR  110/110/115
90 DAY MEAN        29 MAR 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAR  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAR  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAR-01 APR  015/015-015/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 MAR-01 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01