:Product: 19990402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 092 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  ONE OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 02/0821Z.  MINOR GROWTH WAS
REPORTED IN REGION 8504 (S28E23).  MINOR SURGING WAS OBSERVED AGAIN
TODAY ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  HOWEVER,
ONE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 02/0300 - 0600Z.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS BELIEVED TO BE RELATED TO A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM IMPACTING THE EARTH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE
CONTINUATION OF AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 APR-05 APR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 APR 100
PREDICTED   03 APR-05 APR  104/106/110
90 DAY MEAN        02 APR 135
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 APR  014/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 APR  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 APR-05 APR  015/015-015/020-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 APR-05 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01