:Product: 19990403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 093 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES WERE
OBSERVED SINCE YESTERDAY, NONE OF WHICH WERE ABOVE A C3 X-RAY LEVEL.
REGION 8504 (S28E11) DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD.
NEW REGIONS 8506 (S26W02), 8507 (N11E58), AND 8508 (N18E79) WERE
NUMBERED TODAY.  REGION 8508 APPEARS TO BE THE RETURN OF OLD REGION
8485, THE PRODUCER OF FIVE M-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 8504, 8506, AND 8508 ARE EXHIBITING SPORADIC
SURGING AND BRIGHTENING.  EACH OF THESE REGIONS MAY DEVELOP THE
CAPABILITY OF M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT PRODUCTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTELD.  ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD DUE TO
AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 APR-06 APR
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 APR 103
PREDICTED   04 APR-06 APR  110/115/122
90 DAY MEAN        03 APR 134
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR  015/020-012/015-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 APR-06 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01