:Product: 19990405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 095 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N21E49) WAS THE
MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE SUN, PRODUCING A C1/SF X-RAY EVENT AT
05/0831UT. REGION 8506 (S26W28) HAS DEVELOPED INTO A
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. THIS REGION HOWEVER, HAS
SHOWN VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. ONE NEW REGION WAS
NUMBERED, 8509 LOCATED AT (N11E51).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8506 AND 8508 ARE BOTH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE
CONDITIONS REPORTED 05/0600-1200UT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 05/1420UT AND
REMAINED ELEVATED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD DUE TO AN ELONGATED
CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOWTHWEST QUADRANT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 APR-08 APR
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 APR 133
PREDICTED   06 APR-08 APR  135/140/145
90 DAY MEAN        05 APR 134
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR  013/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR  015/020-012/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 APR-08 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01