:Product: 19990406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 096 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8508 (N19E37) PRODUCED A
C3/SF AT 06/0705Z AND REGION 8506 (S26W410) GENERATED A C3/SF AT
05/2309Z. SOME AREAS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WERE VISIBLE IN BOTH
REGIONS BUT OVERALL THESE REGIONS WERE STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8506 AND 8508.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 06/0000-0600Z PERIOD WHEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
OCCURRED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE
HIGH DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET UNTIL LATE ON 07 APR. THEN A WEAK, CME RELATED,
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. A HALO-APPEARING CME OCCURRED AT
THE SUN ON 04 APR. HOWEVER, IT IS BELIEVED THIS CME ACTUALLY
CONSISTED OF TWO SEPARATE EJECTIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
LIMBS. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT THE EARTH WILL RECEIVE A DIRECT BLOW
BY THESE EJECTIONS. ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC PERIODS ARE PROBABLE DURING
THE 08-09 APR TIME PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 APR-09 APR
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 APR 137
PREDICTED   07 APR-09 APR  140/142/144
90 DAY MEAN        06 APR 134
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 APR  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 APR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 APR-09 APR  012/015-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 APR-09 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05