:Product: 19990409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 099 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY RETURNED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8508
(N23W01) STABILIZED AND PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED IN THIS REGION BUT OVERALL THE
REGION BECAME LESS COMPLEX AND MAGNETIC GRADIENTS LESSENED. OTHER
DISK REGIONS WERE STABLE OR DECLINING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8508 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING DUE TO
REGION SIMPLIFICATION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS DURING
THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 APR-12 APR
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 APR 136
PREDICTED   10 APR-12 APR  132/128/124
90 DAY MEAN        09 APR 135
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 APR  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 APR  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 APR-12 APR  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 APR-12 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01