:Product: 19990411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 101 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW WITH MINOR FLARES UP TO
CLASS C INTENSITY OCCURRING IN REGION 8508 (N22W29).  THE REGION
APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DISSIPATING BUT REMAINS ACTIVE AND COMPLEX.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED.  THE SOURCE OF THE SMALL
ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY APPEARED TO BE A MODERATE HIGH-SPEED STREAM
IN THE SOLAR WIND.   CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SLOW DECAY
TOWARD MORE NOMINAL VALUES.  ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT REMAIN MODERATELY ENHANCED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED  TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 APR-14 APR
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 APR 131
PREDICTED   12 APR-14 APR  130/130/128
90 DAY MEAN        11 APR 135
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 APR  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 APR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 APR-14 APR  010/010-010/008-009/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 APR-14 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                13/14/15
MINOR STORM           07/05/06
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    03/03/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05