:Product: 19990413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 103 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  THE CURRENT ACTIVE
REGIONS REMAIN SMALL AND GENERALLY UNINTERESTING.  CLASS C EVENTS
ARE OCCURRING AT THE RATE OF ABOUT ONE PER DAY.   A NEW REGION
(REGION 8515, S20E06) HAS APPEARED.  ONGOING CORONAL ACTIVITY IN THE
EASTERN HEMISPHERE HAS CULMINATED IN A PARTIAL HALO CME FIRST
VISIBLE AT 14/0330UT.  THE EVENT EXTENDED 220 DEGREES OVER THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST SOLAR LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY, AS MEASURED BY FLARE
OCCURRENCE, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.  CORONAL MASS EJECTION
ACTIVITY MAY WELL CONTINUE AT A LEVEL ENHANCED FROM THE LEVELS OF
THE LAST FEW DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE OR MINOR STORM LEVELS OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 APR-16 APR
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 APR 130
PREDICTED   14 APR-16 APR  128/125/123
90 DAY MEAN        13 APR 135
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 APR  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 APR  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 APR-16 APR  010/012-040/030-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 APR-16 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/25/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/25/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05