:Product: 19990414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 104 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. ALL REGIONS ON THE
SOLAR DISK HAVE BEEN STABLE.  A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS
REGION 8516 (S22E66).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THE FIRST DAY OF THE
FORECAST. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY AS
A RESULT OF THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION ON 13 APRIL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 APR 120
PREDICTED   15 APR-17 APR  118/115/112
90 DAY MEAN        14 APR 135
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 APR  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 APR  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 APR-17 APR  010/012-020/025-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 APR-17 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/15/15