:Product: 19990415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 105 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
LONG DURATION C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 15/0239Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION OBSERVED ON
13 APRIL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 APR-18 APR
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 APR 122
PREDICTED   16 APR-18 APR  118/115/112
90 DAY MEAN        15 APR 135
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 APR-18 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/25
MINOR STORM           25/25/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    15/15/05