:Product: 19990421RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
::::::::::  CORRECTED COPY  ::::::::::
SDF NUMBER 111 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED,
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8517
(N24W88) PRODUCED A COUPLE SUBFLARES AS IT BEGAN TO CROSS THE WEST
LIMB. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE LEVELS
OCCURRED DURING 21/0900-1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 APR-24 APR
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 APR 103
PREDICTED   22 APR-24 APR  105/105/105
90 DAY MEAN        21 APR 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 APR  015/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 APR  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 APR-24 APR  010/010-007/007-007/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 APR-24 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/10
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/15
MINOR STORM           25/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01