:Product: 19990422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 112 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 APR 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS. A C4 X-RAY BURST
OCCURRED AT 22/0509Z AND WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL MASS
EJECTION OFF THE SW LIMB. REGION 8518 (S15E04) EXHIBITED MINOR
GROWTH WITH SEVERAL PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS NOTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8518 HAS POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 APR-25 APR
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 APR 100
PREDICTED   23 APR-25 APR  105/105/105
90 DAY MEAN        22 APR 130
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 APR  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 APR  007/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 APR-25 APR  007/007-007/007-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 APR-25 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01