:Product: 19990502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 122 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 MAY 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. INTERMITTENT C-CLASS ACTIVITY
OCCURRED, THE LARGEST A C7 AT 1003Z FROM REGION 8524 (N21W55).
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS HAMPERED GROUND-BASED OBSERVATIONS OF THIS EVENT, IT
WAS SEEN FROM SPACE BY SOHO. OTHER C-CLASS ACTIVITY ORIGINATED IN
REGIONS 8525 (N17E34) AND NEARBY REGION 8527 (N27E38). TWO NEW
REGIONS, 8529 (S13E10) AND 8530 (N16E53) WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL. REGIONS 8525 AND 8524 SHOULD PRODUCE C-CLASS
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH THE MOST DISTURBED
TIMES RELATED TO NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AT ACE IS
STILL ABOVE 500 KM/S, INDICATIVE OF THE HIGH SPEED STREAM AFFECTING
THE MAGNETOSPHERE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE AGAIN HIGH, PASSING THAT THRESHOLD
AT ABOUT 0900Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE CME OF APRIL
29 MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 MAY-05 MAY
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 MAY 136
PREDICTED   03 MAY-05 MAY  140/145/150
90 DAY MEAN        02 MAY 128
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAY  015/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAY  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAY-05 MAY  015/012-015/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 MAY-05 MAY
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01